IEA forecast

Renewable energy isn’t about to replace fossil fuel. According to the International Energy Agency’s environmentally rosiest scenario, fossil fuels will provide 77% of global energy in 2030, compared with 80% in 2004. That projection assumes that governments will implement aggressive policies to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy.

By contrast, the energy most commonly considered renewable – wind, solar, geothermal, wave and tidal power – will account for only 2.4% of total energy consumption in 2030, compared with 0.5% in 2004.

One of the factors limiting the growth of renewable energy is scalability. The largest solar-panel array in the U.S. is under construction in Nevada's Mojave Desert. The project, at Nellis Air Force Base, will consist of 70,000 solar panels spread across 56 hectares. Together, they will produce about 15 megawatts of power. That is about 2% of the output of a modern coal-fired power plant.

Source: WSJ, 31/10/07